Heading into U.S Congress ‘Crypto Week’ with ‘Greed’

Summary

• Institutional capital continued to shape digital asset direction last week via record-breaking spot ETF inflows, expanding stablecoin supply, and maturing protocol infrastructure. 
• Concurrently, headline-grabbing regulatory and political developments further embedded crypto within the broader financial discourse. 
• BTC kept refreshing ATH over the past week and surpassed $119,000 to another ATH on Sunday. Cryptomarkets saw steady gains over the weekend despite Trump announcing 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico. 
• Market chatter on this weekend’s gain is a result of positive speculation related to US Congress ‘Crypto Week’ this week. Fear & Greed Index remained at ‘Greed’ level all week.
• Be mindful for a ‘Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact’ correction as BTC is already flashing RSI overbought signal of over 75. 
• HBAR(+27%) and XLM(+22%) led the pack in Altcoin rally on Sunday, a drop in BTC dominance by 1.5% over the weekend has probably helped fuel the altcoins rally.
• Though historically we need to see BTC dominance drop to below 58% in order to see a sustainable altcoin season.
• While BTC and ETH solidified structural demand foundations, select altcoins, particularly those advancing real-world asset integration and decentralized AI, are emerging as high-conviction rotational candidates.
• Trump Media files for a ‘Crypto Blue-Chip ETF’ politicising the next wave of retail on-ramps.

BTC - Hits another ATH while surging spot-ETF inflows continues

• Bitcoin hit ANOTHER ATH and surpassed $119,300 on Sunday. 
• Spot-ETF inflows continued to grow strong with inflows eclipsed to $1.17B in a single day last Thursday, the second-largest daily creation since the products launched. 
• YTD net inflows now stand near $51B, and IBIT became the fastest ETF in history to surpass $80B AUM. The inflow spike triggered roughly $680M in short liquidations, yet 30-day realised volatility fell below 24%, underscoring that coins are moving straight into cold custody rather than leverage loops. 
• CME positioning corroborates the “strong-hand” narrative: asset-manager net longs rose for a seventh consecutive week while leveraged funds pared shorts. 
• We have now broken out of consolidation via a 5-week flag structure into new all-time highs, possibly clearing the path towards psychological levels of $120k and $130k as we head into “crypto week”. The prior resistance area from November 2024 to January 2025 monthly closes around $100k, has turned into support.

ETH reclaims $3,000 on record $383M daily ETF intake and deepening supply squeeze

• ETH spot-ETFs logged $383M net inflows on 10 July, their second-highest daily print, pushing cumulative holdings beyond 1.81M ETH (~$4.6B). 
• Centralised-exchange balances have slipped to ~9M ETH, the lowest since 2015, while liquid-staking deposits climbed to an all-time high 35.6M ETH (~29% of float). Whale wallets withdrew ~89,000 ETH this week, funnelling capital into staking and DeFi tranches rather than trading venues. 
• Derivatives remain orderly: CME basis is roughly flat to positive and perp funding is neutral, hallmarks of spot-led, not leverage-led, demand. 
• Technically ETH is setting up strongly relative to BTC, putting in a bottoming cup and handle pattern that is currently breaking through resistance from its March 2025 monthly relative close. 
• A pick-up in outperformance from ETH here would consolidate the return of ETH as a market leader in the crypto space as it seeks to regain lost ground from BTC since its 2021 highs. 
• After holding its anchored VWAP from its 2022 lows, ETH absorbed supply above $2,500 following a 5-week coil, breaking higher into the $3,000 zone. 
• This move confirms structural positioning rather than short-term reflexivity. 
• If ETH can clear and hold above $3,000, we should see a follow-up move into 3,400 and subsequently its December 2024 highs.

Stablecoin market-cap expands $2.7B in a week; GENIUS Act moves to House vote

• USDT added $1.4B and USDC $1.3B to circulation, both hitting record highs and signalling fresh fiat on-ramps. 
• Analysts note stablecoin supply growth historically leads spot-market liquidity by two to three weeks. 
• Regulatory tailwinds underpin the expansion: the bipartisan GENIUS Act, which establishes 100% reserve and audit standards for dollar-backed stablecoins, cleared the Senate and heads to the House during upcoming “crypto week.” Passage would formalise stablecoins’ role in U.S. payments and banking, lowering regulatory discount rates embedded in token valuations.

Trump Media’s ‘Crypto Blue-Chip ETF’ 

• Trump Media & Technology Group lodged an S-1 for a diversified crypto ETF allocating 70% BTC, 15% ETH, 8% SOL, 5% XRP and 2% CRO. 
• Beyond headline politics, the filing is a bell-wether for product-mix evolution: multi-asset crypto indices inside ’40-Act wrappers that mirror equity-style benchmarks. 
• Approval would broaden distribution via mainstream broker platforms and embed altcoin weightings into passive flow mechanics. 
• Critics highlight potential conflict-of-interest risks, yet the proposal underscores how political capital is now intertwined with crypto capital, another dimension institutional desks must monitor for headline-driven basis and rotation trades.

Things that caught our eyes in the Altcoin space

• HBAR(+27%) and XLM(+22%) led the pack in Altcoin rally on Sunday, a drop in BTC dominance by 1.5% over the weekend has probably helped fuel the altcoins rally.
• Though historically we need to see BTC dominance drop to below 58% in order to see a sustainable altcoin season.
• While BTC and ETH solidified structural demand foundations, select altcoins, particularly those advancing real-world asset integration and decentralized AI, are emerging as high-conviction rotational candidates.
• Injective - From Periphery to Infrastructure: EVM Unlock and RWA Framework
  
  • Injective Labs launched its Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible testnet last week, marking a turning point in its architecture. 
  • More importantly, the team unveiled a roadmap for supporting real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. Daily active addresses jumped 1,500% YoY, TVL rose to ~$33M, and INJ price quickly moving toward the $14 pivot, gaining ~20% in 5 days. 
  • INJ may transition from a ‘small-cap beta asset’ to a potential DeFi infrastructure play, particularly as traditional finance tests RWA issuance. 
  • Technically, INJ is also putting in a potential cup and handle bottoming formation, confirmed with close above resistance into $14 leading to a recovery of 2024 price range, with ~$20 as a first target.

• Bittensor (TAO) — The Quiet Institutionalization of Crypto-AI Infrastructure
  
  • TAO is breaking out from a consolidation flag over the past 5 weeks, as it remained supported by steadily increasing developer activity (+3,600% YoY), subnet expansion, and new enterprise-focused proposals. 
  • Coinbase enabling NY-based spot trading also opened regulated channels.
  • Notably, the TAOX index tracking Bittensor ecosystem tokens began seeing listings on smaller exchanges this week. 
  • TAO represents the emergence of native crypto protocols uniquely positioned in the AI economy. Rather than betting on abstract “AI narratives,” investors are starting to explore how decentralized compute, model training, and validator-client dynamics could converge into real cash flows. 
  • Rather than a speculative AI token, TAO could increasingly present a functioning, revenue-generating infrastructure layer for decentralized ML. 
  • Sophisticated allocators may begin sizing exposure as a frontier asset tied to AI compute monetization.

Outlook for the Week

• Major catalyst for the crypto space will be the upcoming US Congress ‘Crypto Week’ this week as the US House of Representatives review the 3 cryptocurrency bills including the GENIUS Act stablecoin regulation bill.
• Passing of these bills will further fuel pro-crypto policies of Donald Trump administration.
• Though let’s not let the recent BTC ATH euphoria blind us completely, be mindful the US Congress ‘Crypto Week’ could deliver a ‘Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact’ correction. 
• BTC is already flashing RSI overbought signal of over 75, as the famous Warren Buffet’s quote goes ‘Be fearful when others are greedy’.
• Worth keeping an eye out on Equities performance as well given S&P500-BTC remains positively correlated.
• Asian stocks trade mixed on Monday morning as investors assess the latest Trump’s 30% trade tariffs on EU and Mexico, all in all pretty muted market response.
• Earnings season kicks off this week with major banks starting the season on Tuesday. S&P companies are expected to have increased profit of +5.8% YoY vs previous expectations on April 1 of +10.2% YoY.
• US Treasuries seeing very little safe have bid with 10Y yields held at 4.41%. 
• Macro data wise: US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales due this week. While a slew of China macro data (ranging from June trade, Retail Sales, Industrial Output and GDP) will loom the market as well.