Bitcoin As a Risk Asset Again

Summary

• Institutional flows and regulatory developments continued to redefine digital asset markets. 
• BTC moved in lockstep with Equities again recently, almost no-correlation with Gold or USD. Short-medium term behaviour as macro-driven risk asset which sets the tone for the overall cryptomarket as well.
• Spot BTC ETF net inflows surged toward $50B YTD, reflecting disciplined capital allocation into custody-grade vehicles. 
• The SEC’s new disclosure guidance for crypto ETFs formalises structural transparency. 
• The debut of the U.S.’s first Solana staking ETF validated yield-bearing institutional demand. 
• Ripple’s application for a U.S. national bank charter signals another stage of regulated stablecoin integration. 
• Collectively, on a long term basis these developments solidify crypto’s evolving role as a regulated asset class within institutional frameworks.
• Short-medium term, with Bitcoin reassumed the characteristics of risk-asset. Movements in Equities will give a good indication of the direction the cryptomarket will go.

Bitcoin’s Institutional Accumulation: A Double Edge Sword

• Bitcoin’s recent price action has moved in tandem with Equities, and decoupled from Gold or USD.
• Increased institutional adoption acts as a double edge sword in the way that it reinforces structural demand and supports BTC’s price action fundamentally.
• Spot BTC ETFs attracted approximately $769.5M in net inflows during the holiday-shortened trading week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT ($337M), Fidelity’s FBTC ($248M), and ARK’s ARKB (~$160M). This brings cumulative YTD inflows close to $50B, firmly establishing spot ETFs as the dominant price-setter in BTC markets.
• Yet the fact that investors are repricing everything quickly under the backdrop of recent market turmoil (from trade war, actual war to central bank decisions) means reshuffling of asset pricing across the board including crypto.

Institutional + Corporate Treasury Adoption

• SEC Disclosure Guidance Advances ETF Maturity: SEC issued an exhaustive guidance on 1 July detailing disclosure standards for crypto ETF
• Institutional allocators gain comfort from standardized transparency, enabling allocation decisions with higher conviction. Issuers with mature compliance frameworks, like BlackRock and Fidelity, will likely benefit from faster approvals and greater market share, while newer entrants may confront elevated execution risk. 
• This could bring $8-$10B of incremental institutional allocation potential in H2 2025, drawing BTC custody demand equal to approximately 70k units of BTC at current prices.
• Recent corporate treasury bitcoin adoption hype also provided big support to BTC’s underlying price action.

• Between 30 June and 4 July, 54 public companies disclosed treasury-level Bitcoin purchases totaling around 8,400 BTC (~$900M), with marquee contributions from Figma (~843 BTC) and substantial holdings by Strategy Inc. (~597k BTC).
• These corporate allocations are structurally sticky, once treasury buys occur, unwind is governance-intensive. Combined with ETF inflow dynamics, this permanently removes supply from open markets. Institutional supply modeling must now account for a “float-adjusted scarcity” premium, tightening implied volatility and elevating risk-reward calculus on allocated reserves.
• Technically, a decisive weekly close above $108k could set up for a short-term breakout from the recent range after long consolidation above last January’s monthly close, which may take us potentially into new all-time highs if sustained. Without strong rejections, outflow days around recent highs, continued consolidation above January’s monthly close BTC demonstrates increasing signs of accumulation for an incoming potential leg higher.

ETH: Structural Flows Tighten, Staking Dynamics Deepen, Breakout in Focus

• ETH continues to exhibit robust structural demand, driven by sustained ETF inflows, aggressive on-chain accumulation, and a shift toward long-duration institutional positioning. 
• In the last holiday-shortened week, U.S. spot-ETH ETFs absorbed ~$194.5M in net inflows, led by BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH. Total ETF holdings have surpassed ~1.81M ETH (~$4.57B AUM), with June alone contributing over $1.17B in fresh capital.
• These inflows are materially impacting supply dynamics. ETH held on centralized exchanges has dropped to just above 9M ETH, the lowest level since 2015, while accumulation wallets rose ~36% in June to ~22.7M ETH. Simultaneously, liquid staking deposits have reached an all-time high of ~35.56M ETH, over 29% of circulating supply, underscoring rising institutional appetite for yield-bearing ETH custody. 
• On-chain flows reinforce the trend: whale wallet inflows rose 95% week-over-week, with ~89k ETH withdrawn from exchanges by institutional addresses like Matrixport and Abraxas and redirected into staking and DeFi protocols. 
• CME open interest has ticked up modestly, while perpetual funding remains near neutral, suggesting accumulation over leverage. 
• Technically, the drop in ETH to ~2,100 was heavily bought, and ETH keeps consolidating below the ~2,600 resistance. A confirmed weekly close above resistance would open the door to $3,000, with potential for an extension if inflows persist. 
• ETH is increasingly positioned as a yield-generating, protocol-level asset within regulated frameworks. With growing regulatory clarity and the prospect of staking-enabled ETFs on the horizon, ETH offers a structurally bullish setup. If current flows hold and macro conditions remain stable, a weekly breakout above $2,600 could unlock targets north of $3,000 into Q4. 
• Near-term downside is likely contained within high-conviction accumulation zones above the anchored VWAP from the 2022 lows.

SOL Staking ETF Debuts - Proof-of-Stake Meets ’40‑Act

• On July 2nd, the REX‑Osprey Solana + Staking ETF (ticker SSK) debuted on Cboe BZX with ~$33M in trading volume and ~$12M in net inflows, making it the first U.S. ETF to embed protocol staking yield (~7.3% APY) within a regulated framework. 
• The fund’s architecture allocates ~80% to spot SOL, with >50% of those assets actively staked. Despite a ~1.4% fee and C-corp tax bridge due to Investment Company Act compliance, its successful launch reflects profound institutional demand for yield-bearing products. 
• SOL’s recent price action suggests it may be preparing a re-test of its recent highs above $170, which may be supported by increasing institutional inflows. 

Ripple Pursues U.S. National Bank Charter & Master Account

• Ripple filed with the OCC for a national trust bank charter and applied for a Federal Reserve master account on July 2nd, enabling RLUSD reserves to be held directly on Fed balance sheets. 
• This follows Circle’s parallel application route and aligns with the recently passed GENIUS Act. 
• RLUSD’s market cap stands at approximately $470M. XRP reacted with a ~3–5% rally, and like SOL appears poised for a potential move to test recent highs at ~2.5.
• If this were approved, Ripple’s transformation into a federally regulated financial institution would reduce settlement risk and accelerate institutional use of RLUSD. 
• XRP’s valuation now integrates probabilities tied to systemic utility and regulatory legitimacy. This move coincides with downstream impact on ETF filings for XRP, token utility rationales, and its narrative shift toward infrastructure-tier status.

Outlook for the Week

• Given recent Bitcoin-Equities correlation, movement in equities will give us a good idea on how the Crypto market will move this week.
• Market sentiment is still driven by trade tariffs, geopolitical risks and central bank decisions.
• Asia stocks fell on Monday morning amid US trade tariff confusion that Trump reinstated that tariffs will take effect on Aug 1 for countries that haven't struck a deal but dismissed the notion that Aug 1 will represent a fresh deadline instead of Jul 9.
• Biased towards a risk-off mode with the looming tariff overhang. Safe-haven bonds were better bid with 10Y Treasury Yields down to 4.33%. Dollar remained weak as DXY continued to hover near 4-year lows. 
• Weakening USD mainly undermined by investor’s growing concerns that Trump’s chaotic trade policies will hurt economic growth.
• The same worries have also kept Fed from cutting rates, markets now pricing in a 69% chance of rates cut in September.