Aug 11, 2025

Back to Risk-ON after a textbook shock, stabilisation and rotation week.

Summary:

A textbook shock, stabilisation and rotation week was seen last week. Last Monday’s ETF stress forced fast de‑risking; by mid‑week, flows normalised and breadth expanded, culminating with ETH reclaiming $4k and BTC dominance printing the lowest weekly level since mid-January.
Alt leadership was structure-led, staking demand, yield tokenisation, and infra rails absorbed the shock better than short-cycle ETF money.
The TOTAL vs S&P 500 futures relative stayed pinned near record levels, signalling macro risk budgets remain intact.
Risk assets, including stocks and crypto, started the week on a positive note on Monday thanks to a renewed ‘Risk-On’ mode as solid corporate earnings underpinned high valuations in the tech sector.
Macro-eventful week ahead: US-China tariff deadline expiring on Tuesday, US CPI data and Trump/Putin meeting.

ETH began the week last week with its largest single‑day U.S. spot ETF outflow on record (~465M net outflow), the exact kind of “one‑day event” that forces risk budgets to reset.
Importantly, flows stabilised mid‑week (flattish to small net positives), and spot pushed through $4k into the weekend.
On‑chain, the validator exit queue remains elevated (8–10 day waits), a residual from the stETH/Aave deleveraging wave, yet entry demand persisted, and exchange inventories continued to look thin.
Vitalik backs the idea of Ether treasury companies but warns of overleverage, further backing signs that ETH turns into a hot corporate treasury trend on Wall Street.
Derivatives confirmed the reset‑then‑re‑risk pattern: early‑week funding and short‑tenor basis compressed, then normalised as bids came back.
Technically, ETH/BTC’s July breakout is now in a clean post‑breakout retest; that’s the rotation backbone as allocators are extending duration back into ETH while BTC bases.

The ETF channel followed last Friday’s capitulation with net outflows again Monday and Tuesday (~520M), then flipped to inflows mid‑week, mapping almost one‑for‑one to price behaviour: flush to ~113k, base around ~114k, and higher into the weekend.
The key structural tell wasn’t price, it was dominance: BTC.D posted its lowest weekly reading since mid-January, confirming breadth expansion rather than a risk‑off regime (chart 1).
On the surface, futures showed the same pattern as ETH: front‑end basis compressed into Monday’s stress, then rebuilt as liquidity providers re‑opened risk; funding normalised from negative/flat back toward neutral.
Options skew briefly leaned protective, then mean‑reverted with realised vol coming off intra‑week highs.
The TOTAL/S&P 500 futures relative hovered near cycle‑highs (chart 2), macro risk appetite hasn’t cracked, so ETF redemptions look like timing/risk‑budget management, not thesis rejection.
A new weekly low in BTC.D while price holds the 113–119k band is classic rotation confirmation: capital broadened out without undermining the BTC base. The reserve‑asset bid (treasuries/balance sheets) still defines the floor; breadth says alts can lead without undermining BTC’s base.

SOL spent the week digesting a high‑teens drawdown while institutional participation held up.
CME SOL activity stayed elevated (the July step‑change in volume/OI persisted), and on‑chain TVL and DEX/perp volumes remained firm, evidence that usage is cushioning price.
Inside the ecosystem, Raydium (RAY) outperformed with a ~20% rise in liquidity‑program upgrades and new perp pairs, capturing flows even as SOL consolidated.
That divergence, which showcases venue/infra tokens leading while the base L1 re‑bases, is classic re‑risk sequencing after a shock.
The derivatives stack and venue liquidity argue for buy‑the‑dip frameworks as long as we hold a weekly close above ~$150 on SOL, with a break above 0.02 on a weekly close for RAY/SOL, opening the potential of further relative outperformance for the DEFI token.

PENDLE was among the week’s top gainers. Mechanically, when ETF prints wobble, on-chain “durable yield” becomes the redeployment venue: longer-tenor PT/YT pools see tighter discounts, depth concentrates in majors (LSTs, ETH basis), and volumes pick up as ETH stabilises.
This week followed that playbook: ETH above $4k, BTC in range, and ETF flows back to neutral, exactly when tokenised-yield venues pull capital.
PENDLE is the fixed-income expression of the same rotation that lifted ETH, an income proxy that doesn’t require ETF sponsorship but does require calm volatility and credible ETH leadership.

LINK extended higher on the back of Data Streams for U.S. equities/ETFs, moving regulated market data on‑chain where RWAs, stablecoins, and structured products need it.
Combine that with CCIP and Proof‑of‑Reserve, and you’ve got the data + messaging + attestation stack allocators can underwrite.
Importantly, this week’s move didn’t require a broad risk melt‑up; LINK rallied in sync with alt breadth because desks paid for infrastructure that monetises the very flows (tokenised yield, audited stablecoins) that keep working in neutral ETF weeks.
The market is paying for infrastructure that captures regulated, yield-bearing flows, with LINK being a clean expression of that structural demand, which persisted even through an ETF-shock week.

Risk assets, including stocks and crypto, started the week on a positive note on Monday thanks to a renewed ‘Risk-On’ mode as solid corporate earnings underpinned high valuations in the tech sector.
Macro-eventful week ahead:
- The US-China tariff deadline expiring on Tuesday, markets are expecting an extension.
- US CPI data - Street expects a ready of 3% annual pace vs Fed’s target of 2%. An upside surprise might dampen the expectation of a September rate cut, markets have priced in 88% odds for the first rate cut next month.
- Trump/Putin meeting - Due to meet on Friday to discuss Ukraine.

Thank you! Your submission has been received!

Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.