Risk On, Rotation Restores, Liquidity Realigns

Market Overview

• Risk-On Sentiment Returns: Global markets, including crypto, US equities, and Asian stocks, rallied following signals from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that a "substantial" trade framework has been reached with China.
• Starting the week in the green: Bitcoin topped $115,000 as crypto jumped across the board, triggering over $213 million in short liquidations over the past 24 hours at the time of writing. 
• Liquidity Regained Balance: After the October washout, digital asset markets regained stability as liquidity quietly rotated back into higher-beta assets.
• Structural Higher Lows Confirmed: The TOTAL3 index (chart below) defended the $1.04 trillion ascending-trend support, confirming a structural pattern of higher lows.
• Deleveraging Cycle Cleared: Buyers defended breadth across Layer-1 and DeFi sectors even after retesting the $1 trillion psychological area, suggesting the forced deleveraging cycle has largely cleared.
• BTC Dominance Capped: Bitcoin dominance is trapped near 59.7% (between 58% support and 60-61% resistance), reinforcing that a breakout is constrained.
• Shift to High-Beta Alts: This equilibrium indicates capital redeployment toward high-beta altcoins, rather than fresh risk aversion, despite the broader macro environment improving with tariff de-escalation and moderated inflation data.
• Liquidity Improvement & Rotation: Liquidity improved as spot BTC ETFs recorded ~$446M  in net inflows, while ETH ETFs shed ~$244M, and SOL ETF added ~$27M.
• Busy Macro & Earnings Week Ahead: The week features key Fed and BoJ rates decisions, major 'Magnificent 7' earnings (with a focus on AI spending), and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit, all of which will dictate market momentum.

Bitcoin - Institutional Flows Re-Engage

• BTC spent the week reclaiming composure around the $111-114k pivot zone, aligning with its April-lows AVWAP (~$106.5k floor). The technical profile remains balanced: a recovery of 114k would restore breakout momentum toward $120k, whereas sustained rejection there risks a drift back to $104-105k support.
• Flows were decisive: BTC ETFs +$446M net, led by BlackRock (+210M) and Fidelity (+34M) on Oct 21, offsetting earlier outflows.
• Two key institutional catalysts reinforced sentiment:
  
  1. JPMorgan’s collateral announcement - allowing BTC and ETH to serve as pledgeable assets for institutional lending, effectively widens crypto’s role in wholesale financing.
  2. SpaceX’s $134M BTC wallet reallocation (Arkham) re-signalled treasury conviction, coinciding with a rotation out of gold, which saw its steepest daily drop in five years.

• With open interest still 18 % below the mid-October peak, positioning remains light, a constructive setup if macro cooperation between Washington & Beijing extends. 
• The combination of positive net inflows, macro stabilisation, and on-chain whale accumulation reframed the post-liquidation environment as controlled re-risking rather than capitulation. 
• ~18k BTC was added to large-holder wallets mid-week per Arkham data, and a ~$356M BTC whale buy was flagged, after Sunday’s truce announcement, as institutional accumulation resumed under the surface.

ETH - ETF Outflows but Structural Integrity

• ETH closed the week consolidating around $4,060, maintaining its flag-pattern beneath the 2021 ATH close ($4,626).
• Flows diverged sharply: ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $244M net, with consistent redemptions at ETHE (~47M) and EZET (~33M).
• However, the ETH/BTC ratio (~0.0358) held above its short-term 0.034 support, preserving the multi-month base from July’s breakout.
• Two offsetting dynamics defined the week:
  
  1. Fundamental uplift from the $1B ETH Treasury initiative led by major Asia-based backers and the Ethereum Foundation’s new 2,400 ETH Morpho deployment, signalling DeFi’s re-leveraging through native assets.
  2. Sentiment dragged from profit-rotation into BTC as retail positioning turned cautious post-ETF launch euphoria.

• DeFi balance-sheet growth and institutionalisation through Spark’s $100M Superstate allocation temper the narrative of redemption pressure. 
• Hence, despite net ETF outflows, staking rates and on-chain validator participation remained firm. The April-Low AVWAP ($3.19k) continues to define cycle downside risk, with ETH holding up into its medium-term flag consolidation.

Solana & BNB - Policy L1s Reassert Positioning

• SOL traded between $188-201, stabilising after the prior week’s technical break of its ascending trendline. The tone was supported by a $27M SOL ETF inflow and a string of ecosystem developments:
• Jupiter v3 launch, introducing MEV protections and gasless trading, drew liquidity back to DEXs.
• Solana Treasury Firm expanded holdings by 5 % (average $110 per token), suggesting corporate conviction at these levels.
• Hong Kong’s first spot SOL ETF approval confirmed regulatory diversification of L1 exposure.
• These underpinned SOL’s resilience even as spot volumes normalised. The key battleground remains $201-206 resistance; regaining it would reopen $250-253.

• BNB, meanwhile, remained firm above $1,000, consolidating near $1,125. 
• This week’s tailwind came not from legacy headlines but from Kyrgyzstan’s BNB-chain stablecoin pilot, a state-backed initiative developed under CZ’s advisory network, solidifying BNB’s policy-layer relevance in emerging-market fintech. 
• BNB’s weekly structure remains the cleanest among major L1s: higher-high sequence intact since July, with support >$1,000 as the new institutional anchor.

Emerging Rotation Leaders - ZEC · VIRTUAL · HYPE · JUP

Zcash (ZEC)

• ZEC soared to ~$334, printing fresh 52-week highs and completing a multi-year base breakout above $74 resistance. 
• The move coincided with renewed privacy-narrative interest as Tether joined a $39M round in programmable-bank Pave and JPMorgan’s BTC/ETH collateral policy revived discussions on sovereign custody. Next technical waypoint: $400-405 area.

Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL)

• VIRTUAL rebounded sharply from $0.77 support to ~$1.23 as liquidity returned to AI+ creator-economy tokens. 
• The ecosystem’s cross-platform SDK rollout revived builder activity and exchange depth; resistance remains ~$1.37, while a breakout would project to a possible test of ~$2.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

• HYPE benefited from confirmation of its $1B capital raise aimed at scaling cross-chain perpetuals. 
• Perp open-interest on the protocol rose 17% WoW, while fee revenue surpassed its July ATH. 
• Price is approaching $49/50 resistance; sustained closes above would resume the mid-cycle trend.

Jupiter (JUP)

• JUP benefited from the v3 aggregator launch on Oct 23, with MEV shielding and gasless routing. 
• Weekly structure shows JUP basing above $0.34 support with resistance at $0.54, a range likely to draw further institutional DEX arbitrage interest as flows migrate on-chain, offering the cleanest beta proxy for Solana’s revived liquidity cycle.

Rails & Macro Convergence - Infrastructure Matures

• The week’s quieter theme was the alignment of crypto rails with regulated finance:
  
  • JPMorgan’s pledge framework formally bridges on-chain collateral into off-chain credit.
  • Crypto.com applied for an OCC federal charter (Oct 24), joining Coinbase and Ripple in pursuing direct banking access.
  • Tether expanded distribution reach:
    
    1. Rumble’s BTC tipping feature (51 m users, launch Dec) onboards the retail creator segment.
    2. Pave Bank raises integrates programmable USDT settlements.
       

• Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC jointly targeted year-end oversight milestones—a regulatory détente absent since 2019. 
• Together, these events form the backbone of crypto’s institutionalisation arc: banking access, collateral integration, and real-world settlement rails.

Crypto Outlook

• Last week marked a coordinated rebuild of depth as we keep recovering from the early-October capitulation. Flows tell the story: BTC +446 m / ETH -244 m / SOL +27 m, while TOTAL3 held trend and BTC.D failed to reclaim its neckline. 
• Futures funding rates normalised toward +5 bps, and bid-ask spreads compressed 20 % on top venues, microstructure signs that genuine liquidity, not leverage, is returning.
• Key levels into week 18:
  
  • BTC: defend $106-107k (AVWAP) to target $120k if 114k breaks and holds.‍
  • ETH: maintain >$3.85 k band and 0.034 ETH/BTC to re-establish leadership above $4.4 k.
  • SOL: acceptance >$200 to reignite beta extension.

• Macro, policy, and microstructure are finally in rhythm. This is not the euphoric leg 1 of a bull cycle; it is the institutional validation phase, where credibility and collateral converge.
• Busy Week Ahead:
  
  • Key Fed and BoJ rate decisions: Markets are expecting a 25bps Fed rate cut while BoJ is expected to hold rates. Powell’s comments on the Fed’s quantitative tightening program could swing the markets.
  • Mag7’s earnings: Apple, Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft earnings due, investors will be looking for insights on AI-related tech spending (which has been a major driver of high-beta names since 2023). Any indication of a spending slowdown could dampen risk-on sentiment.
  • Trump-Xi Summit: All eyes on US-China talks, markets are expecting a trade truce after US Treasury Chief Bessent’s comment on Sunday. Any disappointment, however, could spark another market sell-off.