Risk-On Sentiment Returns: Global markets, including crypto, US equities, and Asian stocks, rallied following signals from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that a "substantial" trade framework has been reached with China.
Starting the week in the green: Bitcoin topped $115,000 as crypto jumped across the board, triggering over $213 million in short liquidations over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.
Liquidity Regained Balance: After the October washout, digital asset markets regained stability as liquidity quietly rotated back into higher-beta assets.
Structural Higher Lows Confirmed: The TOTAL3 index (chart below) defended the $1.04 trillion ascending-trend support, confirming a structural pattern of higher lows.
Deleveraging Cycle Cleared: Buyers defended breadth across Layer-1 and DeFi sectors even after retesting the $1 trillion psychological area, suggesting the forced deleveraging cycle has largely cleared.
BTC Dominance Capped: Bitcoin dominance is trapped near 59.7% (between 58% support and 60-61% resistance), reinforcing that a breakout is constrained.
Shift to High-Beta Alts: This equilibrium indicates capital redeployment toward high-beta altcoins, rather than fresh risk aversion, despite the broader macro environment improving with tariff de-escalation and moderated inflation data.
Liquidity Improvement & Rotation: Liquidity improved as spot BTC ETFs recorded ~$446M in net inflows, while ETH ETFs shed ~$244M, and SOL ETF added ~$27M.
Busy Macro & Earnings Week Ahead: The week features key Fed and BoJ rates decisions, major 'Magnificent 7' earnings (with a focus on AI spending), and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit, all of which will dictate market momentum.
Source: TradingView [BTC Dominance]
Source: TradingView [TOTAL3]
Bitcoin - Institutional Flows Re-Engage
BTC spent the week reclaiming composure around the $111-114k pivot zone, aligning with its April-lows AVWAP (~$106.5k floor). The technical profile remains balanced: a recovery of 114k would restore breakout momentum toward $120k, whereas sustained rejection there risks a drift back to $104-105k support.
Flows were decisive: BTC ETFs +$446M net, led by BlackRock (+210M) and Fidelity (+34M) on Oct 21, offsetting earlier outflows.
Two key institutional catalysts reinforced sentiment:
JPMorgan’s collateral announcement - allowing BTC and ETH to serve as pledgeable assets for institutional lending, effectively widens crypto’s role in wholesale financing.
SpaceX’s $134M BTC wallet reallocation (Arkham) re-signalled treasury conviction, coinciding with a rotation out of gold, which saw its steepest daily drop in five years.
With open interest still 18 % below the mid-October peak, positioning remains light, a constructive setup if macro cooperation between Washington & Beijing extends.
The combination of positive net inflows, macro stabilisation, and on-chain whale accumulation reframed the post-liquidation environment as controlled re-risking rather than capitulation.
~18k BTC was added to large-holder wallets mid-week per Arkham data, and a ~$356M BTC whale buy was flagged, after Sunday’s truce announcement, as institutional accumulation resumed under the surface.
ETH - ETF Outflows but Structural Integrity
ETH closed the week consolidating around $4,060, maintaining its flag-pattern beneath the 2021 ATH close ($4,626).
Flows diverged sharply: ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $244M net, with consistent redemptions at ETHE (~47M) and EZET (~33M).
However, the ETH/BTC ratio (~0.0358) held above its short-term 0.034 support, preserving the multi-month base from July’s breakout.
Two offsetting dynamics defined the week:
Fundamental uplift from the $1B ETH Treasury initiative led by major Asia-based backers and the Ethereum Foundation’s new 2,400 ETH Morpho deployment, signalling DeFi’s re-leveraging through native assets.
Sentiment dragged from profit-rotation into BTC as retail positioning turned cautious post-ETF launch euphoria.
DeFi balance-sheet growth and institutionalisation through Spark’s $100M Superstate allocation temper the narrative of redemption pressure.
Hence, despite net ETF outflows, staking rates and on-chain validator participation remained firm. The April-Low AVWAP ($3.19k) continues to define cycle downside risk, with ETH holding up into its medium-term flag consolidation.
Source: TradingView [ETH/USDT]
Source: TradingView [ETH/BTC]
Solana & BNB - Policy L1s Reassert Positioning
SOL traded between $188-201, stabilising after the prior week’s technical break of its ascending trendline. The tone was supported by a $27M SOL ETF inflow and a string of ecosystem developments:
Jupiter v3 launch, introducing MEV protections and gasless trading, drew liquidity back to DEXs.
Solana Treasury Firm expanded holdings by 5 % (average $110 per token), suggesting corporate conviction at these levels.
Hong Kong’s first spot SOL ETF approval confirmed regulatory diversification of L1 exposure.
These underpinned SOL’s resilience even as spot volumes normalised. The key battleground remains $201-206 resistance; regaining it would reopen $250-253.
Source: TradingView [SOL/USDT]
BNB, meanwhile, remained firm above $1,000, consolidating near $1,125.
This week’s tailwind came not from legacy headlines but from Kyrgyzstan’s BNB-chain stablecoin pilot, a state-backed initiative developed under CZ’s advisory network, solidifying BNB’s policy-layer relevance in emerging-market fintech.
BNB’s weekly structure remains the cleanest among major L1s: higher-high sequence intact since July, with support >$1,000 as the new institutional anchor.
ZEC soared to ~$334, printing fresh 52-week highs and completing a multi-year base breakout above $74 resistance.
The move coincided with renewed privacy-narrative interest as Tether joined a $39M round in programmable-bank Pave and JPMorgan’s BTC/ETH collateral policy revived discussions on sovereign custody. Next technical waypoint: $400-405 area.
Source: TradingView [ZEC/USDT]
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL)
VIRTUAL rebounded sharply from $0.77 support to ~$1.23 as liquidity returned to AI+ creator-economy tokens.
The ecosystem’s cross-platform SDK rollout revived builder activity and exchange depth; resistance remains ~$1.37, while a breakout would project to a possible test of ~$2.
Source: TradingView [VIRTUAL/USDT]
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
HYPE benefited from confirmation of its $1B capital raise aimed at scaling cross-chain perpetuals.
Perp open-interest on the protocol rose 17% WoW, while fee revenue surpassed its July ATH.
Price is approaching $49/50 resistance; sustained closes above would resume the mid-cycle trend.
Source: TradingView [HYPE/USDT]
Jupiter (JUP)
JUP benefited from the v3 aggregator launch on Oct 23, with MEV shielding and gasless routing.
Weekly structure shows JUP basing above $0.34 support with resistance at $0.54, a range likely to draw further institutional DEX arbitrage interest as flows migrate on-chain, offering the cleanest beta proxy for Solana’s revived liquidity cycle.
The week’s quieter theme was the alignment of crypto rails with regulated finance:
JPMorgan’s pledge framework formally bridges on-chain collateral into off-chain credit.
Crypto.com applied for an OCC federal charter (Oct 24), joining Coinbase and Ripple in pursuing direct banking access.
Tether expanded distribution reach:
Rumble’s BTC tipping feature (51 m users, launch Dec) onboards the retail creator segment.
Pave Bank raises integrates programmable USDT settlements.
Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC jointly targeted year-end oversight milestones—a regulatory détente absent since 2019.
Together, these events form the backbone of crypto’s institutionalisation arc: banking access, collateral integration, and real-world settlement rails.
Crypto Outlook
Last week marked a coordinated rebuild of depth as we keep recovering from the early-October capitulation. Flows tell the story: BTC +446 m / ETH -244 m / SOL +27 m, while TOTAL3 held trend and BTC.D failed to reclaim its neckline.
Futures funding rates normalised toward +5 bps, and bid-ask spreads compressed 20 % on top venues, microstructure signs that genuine liquidity, not leverage, is returning.
Key levels into week 18:
BTC: defend $106-107k (AVWAP) to target $120k if 114k breaks and holds.
ETH: maintain >$3.85 k band and 0.034 ETH/BTC to re-establish leadership above $4.4 k.
SOL: acceptance >$200 to reignite beta extension.
Macro, policy, and microstructure are finally in rhythm. This is not the euphoric leg 1 of a bull cycle; it is the institutional validation phase, where credibility and collateral converge.
Busy Week Ahead:
Key Fed and BoJ rate decisions: Markets are expecting a 25bps Fed rate cut while BoJ is expected to hold rates. Powell’s comments on the Fed’s quantitative tightening program could swing the markets.
Mag7’s earnings: Apple, Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft earnings due, investors will be looking for insights on AI-related tech spending (which has been a major driver of high-beta names since 2023). Any indication of a spending slowdown could dampen risk-on sentiment.
Trump-Xi Summit: All eyes on US-China talks, markets are expecting a trade truce after US Treasury Chief Bessent’s comment on Sunday. Any disappointment, however, could spark another market sell-off.
