Crypto paused this week amid strong equity outperformance, with rotation, not repricing, defining market tone.
BTC.D failed to reclaim its neckline after last week’s breakdown, reinforcing a structural shift toward alt-driven narratives.
80,000 BTC sales from a Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale created a short-lived spook with Bitcoin briefly dipping below $115,000 before a quick recovery.
ETH flows surged, but the token lagged as capital rotated into Solana and RWAs.
Catalysts behind the ETH rotation narrative: Continued Institutional Demand from ETF, drop in BTC dominance while ETH/BTC ratio jumped, 10 year anniversary.
SOL maintained its breakout and ecosystem momentum, while TON edged toward a technical breakout on the back of its U.S. wallet launch.
Institutional interest continued to build around tokenization rails, with OSL’s $300M raise and CCIP traction underscoring the crypto infra buildout.
The market remains selective, narrative-driven, and technically anchored, awaiting a broader reacceleration.
With crypto-equities correlation remaining positively intact, stock markets' small celebration for Trump’s EU trade agreement and anticipated US-China trade truce extension has boosted cryptomarket to start the week in the green.
Action-packed week with megacap earnings (e.g Apple, Microsoft, Amazon) and Fed, BOJ meetings due this week.
Macro Signals Pause as Crypto Cools with Rotation, Not Repricing, Dominating
U.S. equities again took the lead this week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs (S&P +1.5%, Nasdaq +1.4%).
June core PCE inflation printed at 2.6% YoY (0.1% MoM), aligning with expectations and offering limited impetus for any immediate rate cuts.
2-Year Treasury yield settled at 3.92%, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed around 97.67, rejecting prior resistance and signaling currency stability without safe-haven pressure.
Total crypto market cap was flat WoW, led by BTC and select alts. Stablecoin supply growth was muted (+$100M) and DeFi TVL barely budged to $106.4B.
Institutional flows favored thematic exposure, staking, tokenization infrastructure, messaging rails, rather than broad market beta.
This is not a risk-off environment, but a tactical pause.
Equities continue to benefit from macro stability and positioning momentum, while crypto waits for fresh catalysts.
Until continued ETF throughput with staking-enabled ETFs, or credible macro shocks emerge, crypto remains in a rotation phase: narrow, selective, and driven by narrative-specific flows.
BTC Dominance Rejected at 63%, Rotation Signals Structural Inflection
Following last week’s double-top breakdown, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) staged a modest rebound, retracing to ~62.5% before failing at former support turned resistance.
The rejection, paired with persistent bearish RSI divergence on the weekly chart, reaffirms the potential loss of structural trend, a 13-month regime that began in June 2023.
BTC.D closed the week near 61.3%, validating the neckline as a technical ceiling and reinforcing the shift toward alt-led dispersion.
This isn’t just a chart anomaly, it reflects deeper reallocations in market structure. Despite a subdued BTC spot gain of ~0.6%, ETF inflows into ETH surged to ~$1.8B, outpacing BTC ETF net additions, which totaled a modest ~$72.3M.
At the same time, news that Galaxy facilitated 80,000 BTC sales from a Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale, caused BTC to briefly drop below $115,000 before quickly recovering. This is a testament to liquidity resilience and the absorption power of long-only capital.
BTC remains institutionally anchored, but the marginal bid is rotating elsewhere.
TOTAL2 (market cap ex-BTC) ended the week down just ~1.5%, recovering from an intraweek drawdown of nearly 7%, as ETH, SOL, and RWA-adjacent names saw renewed inflows.
This underscores a more selective, thesis-driven rotation, not a broad altcoin rally. The emerging pattern of BTC consolidation, dominance rejection, alt narratives absorbing flow, mirrors early-stage rotation regimes seen in prior cycles.
Should BTC.D decisively breach 60%, it would mark the first confirmed dominance reversal since early 2021, and formally initiate a structurally broader risk-on environment for the crypto complex.
Source: TradingView
ETH Holds Ground, Structural Bid Firms Despite Underperformance
ETH ended the week broadly flat near $3,750, underperforming top alts as capital rotated toward SOL and select mid-cap beta.
Yet under the surface, ETH’s structural bid continues to firm with US spot ETH ETF recording 16 consecutive days of inflows. Net inflows into ETH ETFs reached ~$1.81B, the largest weekly print since launch, lifting cumulative AUM above 2.1M ETH (~1.75% of supply).
On-chain fundamentals reinforce this: total staked ETH climbed to 36.2M, while exchange balances declined to 8.85M ETH, continuing the tightening liquid float environment.
ETH/BTC ratio pulled back modestly after last week’s stellar rally and breakout above 0.025, but remains above short-term support at 0.03.
This is less a reversal than a rotation pause. While short-term flows chase alt-beta upside elsewhere, ETH’s dual yield and institutional alignment continue to attract sticky capital.
Technically, ETH would confirm narrative and technical strength by, at least, making new 52-week highs to confirm leadership.
With staking, ETF flows, 10 year anniversary context and treasury allocations now reinforcing each other, ETH remains the most structurally sound large-cap in crypto, even as near-term relative performance may consolidate.
Solana closed the week up ~3%, consolidating above its recent breakout from a continuation "cup‑and‑handle" formation.
According to DeFiLlama, SOL’s TVL rose to ~$10.1B, reflecting a +3.4% 7-day increase. Daily DEX volume on-chain approached ~$2.94B, with weekly volume around ~$22.8B, and perpetual trading up ~11.2% over the same period, highlighting both spot and derivatives activity bulking up across the ecosystem.
While average price action saw SOL climb from ~$186 to around ~$192 midweek before consolidating, the week’s technical structure remains constructive. The asset held the breakout level near $180, a zone that previously acted as peak resistance and now appears to be firming as support.
Technically, a sustained recovery above $200–$202 remains key to unlocking targets toward the ~$250 range.
What’s most notable is the diversification of flows underpinning this strength: GameFi applications like Access Protocol continued attracting attention, while memecoin volume (e.g. WIF, MEW) contributed to deepening ecosystem engagement.
SOL’s strength last week is not hype, it is usage-driven. The chain’s ability to convert attention into throughput, from DeFi TVL to retail flows, underscores its evolving role as a blockchain offering tangible engagement rather than narrative inflation.
Source: TradingView
TON Eyes Breakout as Telegram Wallet Goes Live for U.S. Users
TON gained ~1.1% on the week to close near $3.31, holding just below a key resistance zone around $3.41.
The move followed Telegram’s official U.S. rollout of its self-custodial TON-based wallet, now available to ~87M American users directly within the app. This includes support for in-app token swaps, staking, and access to Telegram’s expanding Mini App ecosystem, lowering friction for mass-market crypto onboarding. Notably, this follows prior reports confirming over 100M TON wallets activated globally.
Despite the structural significance, TON remains in a technical pause: it has yet to close above the critical $3.40–$3.60 zone on a weekly basis (see chart), though repeated retests suggest growing momentum.
With the TON wallet now live in the largest consumer market globally, the chain is moving from speculative beta to platform-grade infra.
Continued engagement data or on-chain activation could finally confirm a breakout, making TON one of the only tokens with a direct user acquisition engine embedded in a mainstream communication app.
Source: TradingView
RWA and Crypto Infrastructure Thesis Gathers Momentum
This week, OSL raised $300M to expand tokenization and custody operations across Ethereum and Solana, tapping former BlackRock and JPMorgan executives to the board.
This follows last week’s migration of BlackRock’s BUIDL fund to Chainlink CCIP, reinforcing the infrastructural case for RWA rails.
On-chain, CCIP burn increased +6.2% WoW, though LINK underperformed with a ~4.6% weekly decline to ~$18.30.
Elsewhere, MKR gained +12.9%, as DAI supply expanded ~2.6%, and Frax governance passed updates to support institutional lending via permissioned venues.
The story across RWA and stablecoin infrastructure is shifting from narrative to capital deployment.
Protocols building regulatory-compliant bridges between fiat, RWAs, and DeFi are now being funded and staffed at a Tier-1 level. While token prices have yet to reflect the full shift, the foundation is solidifying.
Outlook for the Week
Developments on Trade Tariffs: Countries are scrambling to finalise trade deals ahead of August 1 deadline with headline focus on US-China set for Monday in Stockholm amid expectation of another 90-day extension.
Action-packed week as Fed, BOJ monetary policy meetings await, both central banks are expected to put rates on hold.
Monthly US employment report and earnings from megacap giants due this week including Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.
